South Africa, the possibilities of the future are more numerous. Will the future bring confederation or separate development? If confederation, is it to be under the shield of the British Empire, or as the union of a group of States independent of the Empire? And, lastly, whether the States be confederated or isolated, subject to the British Empire, or independent, what section of the population, British or Dutch speaking, seems likely to predominate in political power and in language? The mind of the people in South Africa must largely furnish the ultimate determinant of the future. will be a fatal error to suppose that so-called "practical" considerations (meaning those of immediate pecuniary gain) must necessarily decide their future action. Of all facts, the most stubborn and creative are the ingrained beliefs and prejudices of a people-which are usually attributable to quite other causes than a regard for their material interests. A generalisation which is correct enough when applied to operators on the Stock Exchange fails to explain the action of a generation of Huguenots who lost all in fleeing from France.

"On the other hand, the set of home opinion must play a large part. Dominant British opinion was certainly behind the King in his attempt to tax the American colonies.

"In South Africa, Imperialist and Republican, Britishborn and Boer, colonists of every nationality seem to agree with impressive unanimity that one great cause-if not the greatest of such cleavage of British and Dutch as exists has always been an apprehension of Imperial enforcement of a mistaken policy as regards the natives. The Englishman at home who creates public opinion is understood to be liable to be swayed by a section who proclaim the black man as a brother and a citizen, capable of exercising and absolutely entitled to full political citizen's rights and entire social equality. Two centuries of experience have led the Dutchspeaking colonists to believe that tutelage, and not equality, is the black man's portion of justice. His belief is that shared by Sir Theophilus Shepstone, and announced as a rule for future British administration in the proclamation of 1877,

which annexed the Transvaal. 'Equal justice does not and should not involve the granting of equal rights, such as the exercise of the right of voting, to savages, or their becoming members of a legislative body, or their being entitled to other civil privileges which are incompatible with their uncivilised condition.' It is true that the institution of responsible government in the Colonies has lessened the prospect of Imperial interference in the matter, as the Cape Glen Grey Act shows. But there are in practice limits to the self-government of a self-governing dependency, and to the extent to which it can disregard current British opinion. The creation of the coloured vote in Cape Colony has not reassured the Boer. This subject, therefore, is one for careful inquiry, as immediately bearing on the prospects between Briton and Boer, and of confederation between the States. It may be convenient if I mention here the other subjects on which I have sought information from men of all parties through South Africa.

"As far as bearing on present conditions and prospects, the history of the European in South Africa, and particularly of the circumstances which have formed the character of the Boer, must be considered. The present condition of parties in the Transvaal particularly, and in the Free State and Cape Colony; their grounds of divergence, racial and religious, and their policies I have made the subject of special inquiry; as also the policy of the Transvaal Government, internal and external, and the policy of foreign powers, including Germany, as regards the Republics and South Africa. The views of eminent lawyers, including the Chief Justices of the Republics, on the question of the existence or non-existence of the suzerainty over the Transvaal proclaimed by the Convention of Pretoria of 1881, will be of interest. Leading men on both sides of the internal controversy have given with considerable care their views as to the validity of the claims of the Uitlanders, and on all the matters of legislation and administration raised on their behalf. The relation of all the coloured races, including the immigrant Indians and Chinese, to the white population constitute, as

has already been stated, a matter of the gravest interest; and I have been favoured with the opinion of the arbitrator appointed by the British and Transvaal Governments to decide upon the claims of the Indians to be admitted to the Transvaal. The views of the various political parties as to the right policy for the British Government, the Colonies and the Republics respectively in South African affairs have also been a matter for inquiry. In my following letters I shall deal with these subjects. Where divergence of views exists I shall state as fairly as I can the case presented by the authorities on both sides. Finally, I shall state the conclusions at which I have arrived."

In an interview published in the Pretoria Press of the 6th December, 1896, I said :

"The last point to which I should wish to refer is the prospect of a lasting peace between the two divisions of the European race in South Africa, the English and the Dutch sections of the population. I do not wish to put forward my opinion as a final conclusion, but I think that if there should be a frank recognition on either side, that the other side is entitled to be here, and a spirit of reasonable compromise, there is no reason why a modus vivendi should not be arrived at. Not perhaps in the present, but almost certainly in the future, the pressure of the Kaffir and the other non-European populations would be likely to lead to the coalition and the ultimate fusion of the white people. The fact that a certain course of action is a reasonable one and for the benefit of all parties is no proof, however, that it is going to be adopted."

These last remarks have unfortunately proved prophetic, but this citation from the interview will show the spirit in which I had entered into my inquiries and in which they were conducted to the end.

CHAPTER II.

THE NECESSITY OF FINALITY IN THE SETTLEMENT.

THE one conclusion which is borne in upon the mind of anyone of any European nationality who has considered the complex problems of the South African situation is the necessity of a final settlement, once for all, of the questionIn whose hands is political power to be committed? On the answer to this question depends the whole future of the race in South Africa. This is obvious; but much more depends on the solution. On it depend the safeguarding of the integrity of the British Empire and the fulfilment of its high mission in the world. On the solution depends the preservation of all that the great Raj means for all the subject races of the world, for Kaffir, for Hindu, for Malay; as well as for the European colonist who has been so strangely impelled to annex within the brief period of a few generations the whole surface of the habitable globe. The object with which I write, therefore, is to show that, above and beyond the rights and wrongs of the particular issue to which Boer and Briton in South Africa are committed, finality in the settlement should be the dominating thought in the minds of the statesmen who will have to decide when the cannon is silent; finality imperatively required to further the mission in the world of the European race, a mission so strongly realised now in England and in the Empire by those who, a few years ago, would have looked upon the vision as an idle dream; to promote the fusion of the European race in South Africa in furtherance of he higher mission of the race the world over; to ensure

the elevation ultimately, and in the present the just treatment of the subordinate races; a burden not of the white man's selection. These are the objects to be borne in mind by those who endeavour to influence the final settlement of the present struggle in South Africa for British Imperial or Boer Republican prodominance. That the continued existence of the Empire turns on the inclusion or the exclusion of South Africa from its sphere of influence any impartial student of the situation must feel convinced. But that nothing must be left to the settlement of time alone in this struggle between Imperial British and Republican Dutch supremacy, is the one great political fact which I purpose to make clear.

The integrity of the British Empire, it is a truism to say, rests on its moral as much as or even more than on its material foundation. It may be thought unnecessary-but it is not to recall a truth falling in the category of those so well known that people think they may be safely neglected. Its moral foundation centres in its prestige. Its material foundation in the extent of its territory, in its strength in armaments, in its numbers of men trained to arms, in its possession of gold, in the dimensions of its trade.

Prestige is a word not in very good repute in England; a foreign word not perfectly acclimatised. Nevertheless, it deserves naturalisation, for, dispassionately considered, it represents the reputation of the Empire and of its governing classes within as well as without its own borders for, primarily, military power in men and munitions of war, in valour and in tactical skill; but quite as much for sanity, for intelligence, for a sense of justice in administration, and for gratitude to its public servants. Macaulay points out most truly how the chief foundation in India of the permanence of British rule is due to the conviction in the mind of every Indian, of Rajput, of Sikh, of Gurkha, of Bengali, of the absolute reliance which they can place on the plighted British word. Every sworder of John Company knew that his daily ration of rice would be paid to him as his veteran's pension as safely as the salary of the viceroy; although the