Conclusion It is probable that the greatest war in all history is approaching its end. At this moment no one can predict just when or how this end will come, but there are plain signs to indicate that a crisis has been reached beyond which human power and human resources can not long hold out. It will be the special priviiege and the unexampled opportunity of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to take active part in the work of international organization which must closely follow on the conclusion of the war. For that task this Division is making itself ready by study, by conferences and by persistent effort to prepare public opinion to give support to those far-reaching projects based on sound principle which if carried into effect will do all that present human power can to prevent a recurrence of the present unprecedented calamity. NICHOLAS MURRAY BUTLER, NEW YORK, March 31, 1917. Acting Director. DIVISION OF ECONOMICS AND HISTORY Report of the Director TO THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE: In the report of the work of the Division of Economics and History for the year 1915-1916 the unavoidable falling off in the number of European works completed or well advanced was mentioned, and the expectation expressed that the number which would be carried to completion during the continuance of the war would be relatively few. Forty-two works out of eighty, for which contracts had been executed, have been delayed or abandoned because of the war. Some of these will doubtless be completed in time and a few monographs, already completed, will be forwarded as soon as communications are again open. The collection of documents for an Economic History of the War is going on, new studies will be undertaken in the Western Hemisphere and a limited number of works now in hand will soon be added to the list of those already published. It is a pleasure to add that the entire scheme of research undertaken by our efficient Japanese Committee has been carried to completion, and the works are in process of translation. Baron Sakatani has sent word that a Japanese scholar will soon bring this series of manuscripts to America and assist in revising the English version. Economic History of the War The preparation of the proposed Economic History of the War marks the fortunate beginning of what, it may be confidently said, gives promise of being the most important undertaking which this Division has thus far planned. The greatest of all known wars is in progress under our eyes, and the important facts concerning it are accessible. It has entailed changes in the industrial, commercial and financial world so transforming as to be almost revolutionary. Neutral countries as well as belligerent ones have been involved in this transformation and in no state can internal conditions after the war be as they were before. The costs and wastes of the struggle will leave belligerent countries impoverished and indebted, obliged to spend money freely for social betterment with much less of it available for such purposes. There is a possibility of tariff legislation which will have far reaching effects, both good and evil. The war has caused a great increase in the control of industries by governments and, in consequence of the growth of the socialistic movement, a strong effort will be made to continue in a time of peace much of this governmental action which was initiated for purposes of war. Governments and societies will change to an extent that can not now be measured; but it is a safe conclusion that the changes will proceed rapidly and in a democratic direction. It is profoundly to be hoped that they will be of a kind which will make future wars less frequent and wars on a scale like that of the present nearly impossible. A study of the strictly economic effects of the war in many lands, belligerent and neutral, is a transcendent one in its extent, its many sided character and its probable value to the world. The part that we hope to accomplish in the way of initiating it during the year now before us, should fully offset the loss or postponement of other studies. Its scope should be sufficient to include all the important countries involved in the war, and all the important economic changes which the war has brought in these countries. It should deal with matters of public finance, of debts and taxes, of industrial and commercial policies and with the military socialization of nations, especially of those to which such a device has historically been repugnant, as in the case of England. All these subjects and others must be investigated with reference to remote as well as immediate effects. The only method which can be successfully employed is the statistical and historical one, and the reports should be accompanied by documentary compilations presenting to the reader first hand evidence upon the facts reported. If the economic lessons which the record of the war carries on its face shall become a powerful deterrent of future warfare, they will have incalculable value, and it will be the aim of our proposed study to help in making these facts clear and their teachings legible. China, Japan and the Pacific This Division has undertaken to study economic conditions in China, Japan and our own Pacific states, with a view to gaining light, first, on the changes now in progress in each of these regions, and secondly, on the new financial and commercial relations between the different regions which the economic evolution entails. In this study we shall have the cooperation of the active Japanese ComImittee of which Baron Sakatani is the head. Next to the war itself, the most far reaching changes that are anywhere in progress are taking place in a peaceful way on the continent of Asia, and direct information concerning them is necessary as a basis for comprehending the policies of the states involved and, particularly, for directing such policies in ways that will cause them to make for common welfare and for peace. The proposed study will not embrace within its scope any plan for public action. It will not advocate any policy by an American or an Asiatic government; but it will aim to present economic facts of a kind. that it is essential that peoples and rulers should know before shaping future legislation. JOHN BATES CLARK, March 21, 1917. Director. |