they have not come under the Turkish Treaty of commerce: though they actually do pay at the rate of other nations in Turkey, and at the Sound there is no reason that they should do so, and it is not to be supposed that the citizens of America, if their attention be once directed to the subject will suffer their Government to endure an imposition in the one case no less than piracy, and in the other than an extortion. Resistance to the Sound Dues is comparatively an unimportant matter except in its moral effects, but resistance to the prohibitory duties on Turkish exports reopens the whole of that immense question upon which hinges the future fate of Europe, and indeed of America itself.

The rapid increase of population in Europe, and the growing demand for grain places her in dependence upon Russia, Turkey, and the United States for supplies. The Russian exports were disappearing before the competition of two Turkish provinces, where Austria had prevented the imposition of the English Treaty of Commerce; in consequence of the enormous wealth pouring into them the Porte was about to emancipate the trade of the remainder of the Empire, an event which must have closed the chapter of Russian history. Her advance on the Danube has averted the blow, stopped exportation and production there, and equally stopped the proposed abrogation of the export duty throughout the other provinces. The competition is now singly between Russia and the United States, and the mind and resources of Russia will henceforward be applied to the disorganization of the United States. To protect themselves, they must not only guard against the tempter who will seek to use their self-love in putting them forward, but also they must profit by their actual opportunities to take their stand by the side of Europe while it can be supported.

It is now two years since I made an appeal to the United States in this sense in a pamphlet on the

Danube,* and I have the satisfaction of knowing that my words on that occasion have not been without effect on the results up to this hour obtained. It will not be at present presumptuous for me to say that my judgments have been confirmed by those of the Russian 'Cabinet. The Cabinet of Washington must have the means of testing the grounds of this judgment. If no propositions such as these I have indicated have been made it may disregard my past and present warnings: if they have, it must be traitorous not.to act, and imbecile if it acts imprudently.

One word as to Denmark. The abdication of the king is preparing; so also of his uncle. The next prudent step will be the abdication of a few of the Gluksburgs.

* "From the aberrations of the hour, the appeal lies to posterity, because unaffected by the passions that obscure our sight, and the fallacies that pervert our judgment. Severed by an ocean, you are to us a future age; as such I appeal from my countrymen to you, not for judgment only, but for remedy. We have a common interest, you may retrieve what the infatuation of England has sacrificed; but to judge, you must know-read, and you will understand."

Library.

Of California

PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION.

Settlement with Russia.

August 9th.

The

"An immediate rise of the public securities" is this morning proclaimed as the result of the welcome announcement of the acceptance by the Emperor of Russia of the proposal of the Powers, terminating a crisis which has so long held in suspense the political relations and commercial interests of the world. British public and the British government are reassured and delighted by the union of the great European States. It is no longer England, or England and France, interposing for the protection of Turkey. All principles, all interests, are united, and whatever bears the name of a European, is opposed to the Czar. But in all this there is nothing new-it is an old and sickening story; what it is worth I shall presently show in the meantime let me direct my reader's attention to an event both startling and new, which has this morning been equally announced to the inhabitants of these Isles.

:

Last night, in the House of Lords, it was asked,

"WHAT HAS THE GOVERNMENT OF THIS COUNTRY DONE?" This question was followed by "cheers." Lord Clanricarde further asserted, that all Treaties between Russia and Turkey-why did he not add between Russia and England-were abolished by this act, and he therefore expected to hear that the English Squadron was inside of the Dardanelles.

There is something even more wonderful still than this. The Minister for Foreign Affairs "agreed in. everything that had fallen from his noble friend," and "considered the entire evacuation of the Principalities as a sine qua non of any agreement whatever."

On the same night Lord John Russell stated, in the Commons, his belief in the favourable acceptance of the proposals of the Powers by Russia. Putting the two propositions together, and dropping the immaterial question of a first and a second proposal, we have now the Government nailed to the complete and immediate evacuation of the Principalities, because "any arrangement whatever" must imply instance in point of time. It is to be inferred, from the cheers of the two Assemblies, that England would be content with such a settlement. But what shall happen if Russia does not accede? Is your Ambassador then to be withdrawn? No. You will either not obtain the evacuation, or you will obtain it on terms.

First let us consider the question of occupation. In the war of 1828 three corps d'armées were sent across the Pruth; at present four corps d'armées have been sent across the Pruth. In the last war thirty gun-boats were sent into the Danube, at present one

hundred and fifty gun-boats have been sent into the Danube, ("a few gun-boats," Clarendon.) In the last war the pontoons had to be made on the spot and failed; at present they are all ready. The operations therefore are on a larger scale than in 1828, without there being an Ismail to take, which delayed a third of the forces during a third of the campaign.

In 1828 those countries produced only the grain requisite for their own consumption, now 1,500,000 quarters are ready for exportation to England. That grain is now available for the troops of Russia, and may be set down in round numbers at £2,000,000. You will have to go to Russia for that grain; it will cost you there a much higher sum, and the Russian treasury will receive from 10 to 15 per cent, in duties before it is exported. Russia therefore by the operation profits from £5,000,000 to £6,000,000. That profit will equally be secured, whether she evacuates The Provinces thus present to her resources for future operations infinitely greater than in 1828. In that year she had developed no comprehensive scheme; there was no combination with Europe to give to her the succession to the crown of Denmark; she was not pretending to occupy a province south of the Caspian in Persia; there was no revolution in China; she had revealed no projects on Little Thibet; and had not announced her intention of establishing herself on the Upper Himalaya.* There were then no Russian Princesses on a visit to England,

or not.

1

* An offer was made to the Emperor of China to support him against the insurgents, on condition of his ceding Little Thibet, which is only twenty days' march from Calcutta.

b