the command of our communications with India. . . . If the traditional policy of England in the East is to be pursued, it must be pursued by other instruments than the Turks. At present, however, these other instruments are not forthcoming, and the object of England is to postpone the overthrow.-P. M. G. Oct. 15th.

Meanwhile the Turkish Government had endeavoured to palliate the effect of their repudiation by coupling with it that promise of reform which, as we have seen, had seemed to reconcile Russia to the failure of the Consular Mission. A circular despatch from Safvet Pacha, dated October 7th (the day on which the news of the repudiation reached England), appeared in the Times of October 23rd.

1

[The circular calls attention to the promulgation 1 of radical and indispensable reforms, which the Porte had decided to put into execution at once throughout the Empire. It lays stress on the financial benefits which may be expected. These promises of reform, "a striking and spontaneous proof of the generous sentiments of his Imperial Majesty," are held out to the creditors, who are told that "the traditional honesty of the Sublime Porte . . . will more than ever influence all its acts," that "the Imperial Government would prefer to succumb rather than forfeit its dignity and high reputation," and that the payment of their coupons was to be reduced one-half.]—Reuter's Telegram.

This overture of the Porte was received with the most openly expressed incredulity. This outspokenness contrasts strangely with the apathetic silence with which the first mention of the new Turkish promise had been received three weeks before. The silence then was due no doubt to the expressed belief of Russia in the possibility of Turkish reform.

We readily acquit Safvet Pacha of any intention to be satirical. . . . [He] falls back on the goodness of [the Porte's] intentions, and he seems to fancy that he has done enough to soothe the apprehensions of Western exchanges when he has paraded the "reforms" which are to regenerate the Empire. Unhappily for him, we published along with his circular two commentaries 2 on these reforms from correspondents who write with an experience of Turkish life. . . . The evidence of these witnesses is almost identical, and it exactly confirms what we have often said about the hopelessness of the expectation that

1 By an instrument known as the Iradé of Oct. 2.

2 The letters referred to were one from a Turkish correspondent at Constantinople, dated Oct. 14, and one from the Times special correspondent at Ragusa, dated

Oct. 16.

the Turkish Empire can be reformed. Both correspondents emphatically assert that the promises of amendment are absolutely worthless. . . . The emptiest of all the promises, however, is that the Christians will henceforth be adequately represented in the Provincial Council and in the great Council of State. . . . In truth it [the Porte] dares not take a step which would inevitably lead to the overthrow of its own authority.-T. Oct. 25th.

§ 2. The Russian Volte-Face.

Just as the month of October was ending, Russia abandoned the tone of acquiescence in Turkish Reform adopted by the Journal de St. Petersbourg a month before, and reverted to a policy of "Emancipation." The change was marked by the publication of an article in the Russian official gazette of October 29th, quoted in the St. Petersburg telegram of the Times of October 30th.

This Russian volte-face, as it was called, gave rise to the first clear instance of the phenomenon which we call "erubescence," The action of Russia was variously explained. According to one theory the sympathies of the Russian people were the motive power. According to another, the Russian Foreign Office, having seen the financial ruin of Turkey, and the discrediting of her in England, was now prepared to strike the blow which it had long been meditating.

But however this might be, the immediate persons of th idea of Russian intervention caused in England a certain rem'arm of feeling. It seemed too incredible a thing that Brick wal move without an arrière pensée towards Constantinople yu # time the dread of Russian aggression seems to ove pehadow thin urgent necessity of securing good government for the Prophe and we find many hints that England's true policy is to hold bef from entangling engagements, and to be ready to wewe umepa might require.

[The policy of pretending to trust the Ottoman Government he apparently coming to an end, and no one can forcer bow for th new policy of interference will be carried.] DN Now 1.4

[Russia has lifted part of the veil, the puzzled wverybouky # month ago by speaking of the Grand Viziy whme ** at chu believed in regeneration. The present article brings me burl wild # wrench to the old way. They say "un and must be put Boy Ma present sad condition of the Christian population of Toky Here a note is struck with the real ring of the old Turcima upahun

Some speculations follow, as to what amount of intervention Russia contemplates.] This country will meanwhile prefer to wait on events, free from illusions, but free also from embarrassing engagements.-T. Nov. 1st.

[At last we have the explanation which we have all along led our readers to expect of the financial coup d'état. No doubt Mahmoud Pasha, to whom the suggestion came as a great relief from pressure, determined on the act in good faith. But even bondholders will not regret it more than the Turkish Government when they see its full bearing. Its first result was to violently alienate the Western Powers. This is exactly what Russia and her allies wanted. We find the conspirators are not slow to seize the opportunity.]-Post, Nov. 1st.

There is a deep and growing suspicion that the warning to Turkey denotes at least a wish to begin a new chapter of intervention, at the place at which the Crimean War abruptly put a stop.

.. No one supposes Russia has abandoned any of the hopes which led her to that war. But the goal of Russian ambition is unfortunately Constantinople, and to speak plainly that is a post which we cannot permit her to occupy.-7. Nov. 5th.

No sooner had the Divan decided to destroy the credit of the Empire, and thus paralysed their own means of putting a large army in the field, than the Russian Government executed a violent volte-face. [Russia seems to be urging tributary autonomy for the provinces,] but in considering Russian action, it is always necessary to discuss the question whether the apparent object of her diplomacy is also the real one. Is the Russian Foreign Office undoing all that General Ignatieff has done in the last five years, . . . in order to constitute Bosnia a separate State under an united guarantee? . . . It is possible that, as these States are Slav, she believes it will not be difficult, when the time is ripe, to gather them all under her flag, and entirely approves any increase in their number, and especially an increase in extremely small, and therefore weak and jealous aggregations. It is possible, we say, that this is her policy, and if it is, we wish it every success, for Russia will in that case use her great strength to liberate European Turkey, only to find herself faced by a federation much stronger than the Sultan, much more important to Europe, and much more likely to find effective allies. But it is a little difficult to believe that Russia can be so mistaken, that she can seriously intend to sacrifice her ascendency at Constantinople for so limited an end, or that she would have selected such a moment without much broader purposes in view. A policy of doing nothing with firm civility is England's role for the moment, and for the management of such a policy if he adopts it, the bitterest Radicals may have the heartiest confidence in the Secretary of Foreign Affairs.-Spec. Nov. 6th.

The National Russian Party, represented by the Journal de St. Petersbourg and the Moscow Gazette, has naturally been in

dignant at the extremely mild measures which are all that Russia can adopt if she is to act in concert with Austria and Germany. [The party of action is too strong to be despised even by a despotic Government, which felt that] something must be said to convince the Russians that there is no difference of principle between the Government and the national party. . . . That Russia intends as soon as she is strong enough to change the condition of the Christian population of Turkey, has never been doubtful, and the fresh declaration of her purpose with no date fixed for its accomplishment may not prove to have materially hurried matters forward.-P. M. G. Nov. 1st.

§ 3. The First Guildhall Speech.

The Cabinet held its first meeting after the recess on November 4th, and at the Lord Mayor's dinner (November 9th) the Premier made his first allusion to the state of affairs in Turkey.

It would be an affectation to pretend that a partial revolt in a province of European Turkey has brought about a state of affairs, which in that part of the world very often becomes critical. In the present instance, the wise forbearance of the Great Powers immediately interested in the question, a wise forbearance to which I beg to offer my most sincere testimony, and which cannot be too highly appreciated, produced an effect so happy that at one moment, some months ago, we had a right to believe that this serious disturbance would immediately cease. My Lord Mayor, an unfortunate event, which I will not dwell upon, the financial catastrophe of one of our allies, revived the expiring struggle, gave a new aspect to all the circumstances, and created hopes and fears in quarters and in circles which before that did not exist. It is impossible to deny that circumstances of this character are critical, but for my own part, I have still great confidence in that forbearance to which I have referred. I believe that it will continue to be exercised, and I have myself, not only a trust, but a conviction, that means will be ascertained, which will bring about a satisfactory result-a result which will be consistent with the maintenance of peace, and which will be satisfactory to the public opinion of Europe. My Lord Mayor, I will not contemplate any other result, and therefore I will only say that the interests which the Imperial Powers have in this question no doubt are more direct than those of Great Britain, but though more direct, they are not more considerable, and those to whom the conduct of your affairs is now intrusted are deeply conscious of the nature and magnitude of those British interests, and those British interests they are resolved to guard and maintain.-Mr. Disraeli.

It is curious how much up to this time Mr. Disraeli had kept himself in the background, and, moreover, how his reputation had scemed to be declining.

Hitherto, all through the autumn when foreign affairs were being discussed, Lord Derby was the one figure which stood out in the imagination of the journalists as distinct from the impersonal "Government," and as having some human idiosyncrasies. But on Lord Mayor's Day 1875, Lord Derby said but little, and Mr. Disraeli came to the front; from that time onward with intervals of partial retreat ("recueillir pour mieux sauter" perhaps), Mr. Disraeli began to loom larger and larger to the public eye.

The effect of the Premier's speech seems to have been twofold: he spoke of disquieting facts, but he spoke of them as of one who saw his way. His tone gave the impression that the Government were adequate to the occasion, and from all quarters there came in reply assurances of confidence and support.

The Times compliments the Premier on the increased sobriety of his tone.

The Pall Mall Gazette says the speech was listened to "with profound interest and much relief."—(Nov. 10th.)

The Times next day notes that the Premier does not bid us expect that peace can be restored to Turkey by any efforts of her own.

The Daily News is pleased at the Premier's recognition of the importance of British interests in Turkey, hopes that the settlement which he looks forward to will be, not like that of 1856 founded on a prodigious fiction, but one the foundation of which has proceeded upon the strictest reference to the facts of the case. (Nov. 11th.)

The Economist says that some slight alarm has been caused on the Stock Exchange by the Premier's speech.-(Nov. 13th.)

Mr. Disraeli's speech at the Guildhall differs markedly in tone from his previous speeches in the same locality, and his usual speeches anywhere. It is not audacious, it is not epigrammatic, it is not bombastic. . . . It is the speech of a man who feels himself face to face with a heavy responsibility, about which he cannot say much; who knows that the immediate future is not clear, and who, were not the dangers of publicity so great, would relieve his own mind by giving his audience a warning.-Spec. Nov. 13th, 1875.

The Colston banquets at Bristol occurred shortly after Lord Mayor's Day, and it happened that the prominent guest of the Anchor Society was the leader of the Opposition. The opportunity thus afforded for further comment on the Premier's speech did not pass unutilised, and again, a few days later, Mr.