foreign cabinets would do well to abstain from ostensible pressure, to show confidence in the Sultan, and confine their attentions to helping to pacify the insurrection and to examining suitable institutions.

The Times says: It is startling to find the Russian Government organ singing the praises of Turkey. Probably the explanation is that Russia's plan is disliked by Austria, and that Germany, who does not want to endanger the triple alliance, has induced them to postpone the discussion of their differences. Russia can afford to bide her time, for events are fighting on her side. (Sept. 30th.)

The Standard warmly approves the line taken by the Russian Government organ, and says had such views obtained in July, and had the Porte been left to deal with her own subjects in her own way, perhaps the revolt would not have attained such importance. -(Sept. 30th.)

A letter from Garibaldi appeared in the Times of October 13th bespeaking sympathy for the insurgents from the point of view of the sacred rights of man.

The insurgents have no allies left except the Montenegrins and a few Italians belonging to the cosmopolitan army of the Revolution. Spec. Oct. 16th.

The insurgents being left in this forlorn condition, the rebellion died down to a guerilla contest. Turkish reform, the stock alternative to emancipation, was once more the order of the day; and as Russia appeared satisfied with the prospect, people in England seemed to think they had liberated their consciences, and that there was nothing more to be said. It was at this juncture (October 7th) that Lord Derby made the first public English official reference to the matter at a banquet at the Liverpool Town Hall. He spoke in a tone calculated to convey the impression that he regarded the incident as over.

There are two countries which of late have been attracting a good deal of attention. In Turkey, as you know, disturbances have been going on for some time past-disturbances which have been greatly magnified in importance by popular report, for the simple reason that they occurred at a time when there was not much else to write about; but still serious in this sense, that in these countries there is always a good deal of loose gunpowder about, and a very small spark may lead to a very large explosion. The armed force of the insurrection has never been considerable; indeed I fancy one of the difficulties of the consuls who were lately sent on a mission of conciliation was to find the insurgents whom they were to conciliate. It was hoped, no doubt, by the leaders

of the movement that they would have the support, either secret or avowed, of the Great Powers. In that hope they have been disappointed. The Great Powers, without exception, have shown their sense of the difficulty of the situation, and of the inexpediency of pulling down where you cannot build up. I don't think, therefore, we shall hear much more of the armed insurrection. As for the steps that may be taken to prevent another outbreak by the removal of grievances I don't apprehend that there will be any reluctance on the part of the Porte to grant considerable administrative reforms. The difficulty will be to find men to execute them. It is proposed by some persons that the provinces in question should have granted to them a local autonomy like that of Roumania and Servia. That is an idea which I think will not find favour in the eyes of many of the parties concerned. Local autonomy is very well where you have to deal with only one religion and race, but where Mahometans and Christians are mixed together, or not very equal in strength, leaving them to settle their own internal affairs simply means leaving the stronger of the two parties to oppress and possibly to exterminate the weaker. Much may be done in the way of removing abuses and lightening taxation, but it is useless to deny that, do what we may, elements of discontent will remain. It is only in a high state of civilisation, and not always then, that two rival religions can get on side by side in the same country. The state of things does not, as I conceive, admit of a good radical cure, but alleviation is possible, and the rest may be left to time. And now I come to a question which is of more immediate and direct interest to ourselves. In the case of Turkey we have only to do our duty by other Powers. Our own interests, though very real, are indirect, and the decisions taken do not rest wholly with us. [He goes on to say that in China, on the other hand, we have claims and interests of our own; that he had hoped up to the last moment to come bringing the news that a pending Chinese difficulty had been peaceably settled, but such was not yet the case.]-Lord Derby, Oct. 7th.

Thus, with an impression that what attention had been aroused by the affairs of Turkey might be diverted to other matters, the first phase of the Incubation Period comes to an end.

CHAPTER VIII.

INCUBATION PERIOD.

SECOND PHASE (TO END OF PARLIAMENTARY RECESS).

2

§ 1. The Turkish Repudiation.

BUT if people were beginning to let all concern about the state of things in Turkey pass out of their minds, their thoughts were soon brought back to that part of Europe with a wrench. The event which effected this was the Turkish repudiation. This was announced in a second edition of the Times as it happened on the very day when Lord Derby spoke at Liverpool. The world was informed that during the five years from January 1st, 1876, the interest on the Turkish public debt was to be paid half (that is three per cent) in cash, and half in bonds bearing five per cent. interest. It is true that for some time past a collapse of Turkish finances had been looked for as imminent. But now that repudiation was actually announced it caused a profound sensation. The question at once arose what was to be done. Bondholders held excited meetings. England and France were to threaten Turkey into paying her debts, or perhaps Italy was to be cued ing the dismissal of the Vizier Mahmoud was to be demanded. Hich were some of the suggestions. They were al won won to bre impracticable. A curious rumour arose to the diod that Mos had offered Mr. Gladstone 509904, to put the Torx in FramAER straight. It is only important as molaring a volten Regres was somehow coming to the recus, The wt Angaben w attributed to Mahmoud Pasha, the grandszer Hanggoner,

1 Oct. 7th.

2 The amount of the delt was £29.90TL na pagju

£6,000,000 a year. The totide were, jeans at gær,

30 per cent. of the par va se

A Vienna telegram of Oct. 124*

the rumour.

about the middle of August, was the first apparent Turkish concession to the pressure of Russia and the other Powers, a pressure which brought about the Consular Mission. Mahmoud was supposed to be under Russian influence, and now the notion was set on foot that this repudiation was a subtle device suggested by Ignatieff with the express object of crippling the borrowing power of Turkey and thereby weakening her for ever. The influence of financial interests was so conflicting that it is impossible to say that the fact of Turkish indebtedness to English people influenced the public mind in favour of any definite policy. If the first effect of the repudiation was still further to weaken the weakening hold of the traditional policy of supporting Turkey, there seems to have been some vacillation of feeling after the first fit of anger was over, and a partial return to the old policy of support. It was as if the first thought of the creditor had been to take his debtor by the throat and say "Pay me that thou owest;" his second to set Turkey up in business again in the hope that she might yet pay a fairly good composition. It is difficult to trace any coherence in the attitude of the press on the question of intervention for the bondholders.

The Daily Telegraph about this time seems to have advocated intervention.

The Daily News seems to think that the arrangement the Porte proposes is the best for the creditors. If Turkey pays them half and goes on with financial reform, thus daily improving their security, the creditors will not be so badly off after all.(Oct. 23rd.)

[The Turkish stock is widely diffused among the class which, under all modern kinds of government, has obtained the largest share of ultimate power.] It must be remembered that up to this time. . . the stir Turkey has made in Europe has never implied even the smallest degree of interest in the country or the people. . . . All through Europe the Turkish repudiation has stung the democracy in its tenderest point. In England a pledge to urge the claims of Turkish bondholders would probably be the most effectual hustings cry-Liberals and Conservatives might alike give such a pledge. . . . The general result of her financial collapse would be to make Public Opinion tender at the least, to any plan for allowing Turkey to be absorbed by any Power likely to prove solvent. [The writer goes on to speak of Greece and Russia as if they were rival candidates for the reversion of Turkey-dependent on the suffrages of the bondholders-saying the event will not help Greece much. The most unabashed of all insolvent states, Russia, would have a

better chance; but the constant increase of her debt ought to make sanguine people pause.]—P. M. G. Oct. 21st, 1875.

Mr. A. J. Wilson speaks of the bondholders as "blinded by greed," and urges the Government to resist the appeals to intervene on their behalf. [The country cannot be drawn into broils for a cause like this, and if it resists, the energy with which poor bondholders lament themselves and abuse Turkey will do no harm. Turkey has forfeited whatever goodwill she ever possessed in this country and in France. The insurrection and other questions now will be settled without any reference to the supposed rights of Turkey. Perhaps the best chance even for the bondholders would be in making emancipated principalities the administrators of the affairs of Turkey. The emancipated principalities might amongst them take up a fair proportion of the debt.]-Macmil. Dec. 1875.

Meanwhile the strong anti-Turkish feeling that had been excited in England had attracted the notice of the French journalists. An article, written by Mr. John Lemoinne, attracted not a little attention in England.

Every one must have been struck by the rapidity and facility with which England has thrown her traditional Eastern policy overboard. And the public has seen the country for which the integrity of the Ottoman Empire had so long been a dogma, become suddenly the first to call for the dismantling of the crumbling edifice.-Journal des Débats, Oct. 13th.1

Both the Times and the Pall Mall Gazette, the latter as explicitly as the former, repudiated the notion that the preservation of Turkey was ever regarded as an end in itself by England.

It is a mere playing with words to say that our traditional policy has been the "integrity" of the Ottoman Empire . . . [as evidenced by the case of Greece and the Danubian Principalities.] The one point on which we insist . . . . is that the Turkish Government shall not be hastily overthrown, and that its provinces shall not be offered as a prey to the jealous Powers which surround them. . . . Whatever revolution is to be consummated in the East of Europe we are anxious that it should be gradual, and that an established Government should not be overthrown on the mere chance of some more satisfactory organisation emerging from its ruins.-T. Oct. 15th.

[M. Lemoinne confounds form with substance]. The motive of English policy in the East has not changed; the particular action dictated by that motive undoubtedly has changed. In 1875 as in 1854 it is the object of England not to allow Russia to become paramount in Europe, and especially not to allow her to become paramount in a way which would give her

1 See Times, Paris telegram, Oct. 14.