stand firmly for peace. Under such conditions no Italian statesman will try the great venture of war unless events drive towards it. The capture of Constantinople might well be such an event."

Pandemonium in Constantinople as the Allies Draw Near.

ENVER PASHA returned to Constantinople last

month from an Asiatic campaign in order to prevent a flight of the Turkish government to Broussa. He was summoned in haste by the Germans after a violent scene between his own faction and that of the "old Turks." The Grand Vizier, to follow the London Chronicle, had decided to negotiate with the allies in the Dardanelles. He and his colleagues were revising a note to the American Ambassador on the subject when General Liman von Sanders burst in. The German commander threatened to shoot anyone, Grand Vizier or not, who attempted to communicate with the allies. All this, which passes for news in London, is taken as brazen mendacity in Berlin, where the Vossische cites it as a type of the tale with which the American mind is poisoned. London dailies, on the other hand, copy despatches from Constantinople in the Frankfurter Zeitung as evidence of the fashion in which the German public is deluded-despatches which report the allies at their last gasp in the Dardanelles. There is a general agreement, however, that the residents of Constantinople are getting their cellars ready with a view. to bombardment. The Turks understand the delay of the allies and the misadventures of their expedition in the Dardanelles to be due to the failure of Greece to "come in" at the last moment.

Failure of Greece to Join the
Allies in Gallipoli.

ONCE the allies were agreed upon the expedition to Constantinople, the government of Greece signified its readiness to participate. At the last moment the King upset all calculations by refusing to sanction the expedition. Premier Venizelos resigned and the Balkan world was dumbfounded. Athenian dailies, especially the Nea Himera, now elucidate these mys

WILLIAM O' THE WISP

-London Punch

311

ambitious that an army of some magnitude proved indispensable. The Greek expedition would have to be strongly enforced in time, thus weakening the Hellenes on their Macedonian frontier. Moreover, in the absence of a formal pact with the allied powers, Greece would be acting without a valid guarantee, a point on which the German minister in Athens laid stress. What impressed Athenian dailies was the fact that if Bulgaria attacked Greece while the Hellenes were away in Turkey, Macedonia would easily succumb to the ambitious Ferdinand. The allies, at the least, should pledge themselves to force Bulgaria to yield whatever she might capture behind the backs of the Hellenes. Reports in Athenian dailies that France professed complete indifference to Greek participation and even declared that no Hellenes were to enter Constantinople with the allied forces are denied by the Paris Temps as German mendacities. Nor is there any basis, says the Novoye Vremya (Petrograd), for German reports. that Russian jealousy kept Greece out of the expedition. The allies would have welcomed Greek cooperation, says the London Standard, because of its moral effect, the military factor being negligible. Unfortunately for King Constantine, it says, his court is all for the Germans, thanks to the influence of the Queen, "who adores her brother, the German Emperor."

Why the Greeks May Soon Cease to be Neutral.

AT THE coming general election in Greece, the Hel

lenes may be expected to restore Venizelos as Prime Minister, or at least give power to his adherents. A different outcome will prove the press of the allies

deluded and the press of Athens itself no guide. Of the thirteen Athenian daily newspapers, but three can now be called pro-German, notwithstanding the energy of a propaganda directed from Berlin at which the English are especially indignant. Germany knows, insists the London Post, that it is hopeless to expect. Greece to draw the sword on the side of Berlin and Vienna. Hence the efforts of the German minister in Athens are directed to the maintenance of Greek neutrality, and this, for the moment, he has managed. It comforts itself with the reflection that the policy of neutrality can not survive the general election. Here is its summing up:

"It needs hardly to be pointed out that Greece has let a unique chance slip through her fingers of putting herself into a position of far greater international importance and prestige than she has hitherto held or can hope to attain by the ordinary course of events. It is absurd to say (as the small pro-German Party reiterate) that Greece, by assisting at the overthrow of Turkey, is digging her own grave to benefit Russia. But quite apart from that consideration, which is still open to discussion, what is beyond dispute is the fact that the fate of the Ottoman Empire will be decided in any case by the victors in this world-war, and Greece's wishes will be considered only in so far as they are compatible with the interests of the victors. If Germany wins, the Ottoman Empire will not only be preserved intact, but greatly strengthened (under a German protectorate), in which case Greece stands to gain nothing and to lose a great deal. The persecution of the Greeks of Turkey, which has been going on all these past months and years under the indifferent eyes of Turkey's German preceptors, will then naturally continue until there is not a Greek left in the Ottoman dominions. If the Entente wins, Greek interests will receive due consideration only if Greece has helped actively in the overthrow of the Ottoman power."

SERVIA: I may have hatched you out, but you're no child of mine. -Enright in Harper's Weekly

FOR

The Scramble in the Balkans
Waits on Constantinople.

OR the moment, events in Europe hang upon developments in the Sea of Marmora, where, as a naval expert writes in the Giornale d'Italia, the fleet of the allies ought to have arrived by this time if it is to arrive at all. The action of Rumania, Greece, Italy and Bulgaria depends now on the result of the display of force in the regions in which they are most. interested, chimes in the London News. "The European war is a single whole, and any region where conquests could be rapidly made by either side may be decisive as to the fate of all the other regions." This is the theory upon which the expedition to Constantinople will be pushed at every hazard. The allies are so certain of their success that not a few Paris papers discuss the project of appointing a new Sultan. The English would retain Mahmoud V., remarks the Temps, because he is so docile, so insignificant and so weak. The French colonial office, mindful of its own Mohammedan population, thinks of setting up a commander of the faithful in Mecca itself. The Turkish forces will be driven from every line leading to Suez, the holy places will be occupied and the old doubts respecting the right of a sultan in Constantinople to rule the faithful submitted to the Ulemas and the Sheiks. There has long raged among the Mohammedans a controversy on the subject of any Turkish Sultan's divine right to the Caliphate. The dignity can be conferred in its plenitude only upon a descendant of the prophet in the true male line, and this, as the allies have recently learned, is not the case with the members of the Ottoman dynasty. The discussion, long academic, will become practical, according to the Temps, when Constantinople falls. It predicts that event confidently as a matter of the near future.

SINCE

INCE the reported despatch of a formidable Japanese military expedition to China about six weeks ago, the censorship of despatches from both Peking and Tokyo is reported in Berlin dailies as unprecedentedly severe. So little of an authentic nature seems to slip through that the Paris Temps and the Berlin KreuzZeitung involve themselves still in mazes of contradiction regarding the mysterious envoy from Japan who, it is rumored, is on his way to Europe to conclude a separate peace with Emperor William. There is no such envoy, insists the French daily, inspired by the Quai d'Orsay, altho the organ of the Wilhelmstrasse understands that he exists in an unofficial capacity. In the meantime Tokyo dailies are prone to alarmist comment upon reports of German intrigue in Peking, where Yuan Shi Kai is considering, apparently, a suggestion that he escape the exactions of the Okuma ministry by becoming a vassal of Germany after the fashion of the Turkish Sultan. Behind the mystifications of the past month a crisis of grave proportions is developing, in the opinion of the Manchester Guardian, which, with some other English organs, thinks it high time for Sir Edward Grey to dispel these obscurities with a definite statement. Significance is attached by European papers to the reticence of official Washington in all that relates to the action of Japan in China.

Japan's Determination to Act With Energy in China.

313

sion after another embarks from Sasebo for China. No less than forty thousand additional troops reached the Asiatic mainland several weeks ago and the movement proceeds. The Japanese garrison at Tsing-tau and garrisons at other points on the Chinese coast have been augmented in men and material considerably. Official explanations in Tokyo indicate that these measures were taken to police the country and to replace regiments brought home. Attention is called to the fact, on the other hand, that the Japanese battleship squadron, sent home for overhaulings, reappeared off the Chinese coast considerably strengthened. Newspapers in Tokyo, follow the progress of anti-Japanese agitations in Peking with interest, attributing them to German machinations. The Hochi affirms that the pledges of Yuan Shi Kai are unreliable and says, as do some of its contemporaries, that the Peking government is deceiving the allies. An important section of the Japanese press, headed by the Mainichi (Osaka), has begun an antiGerman campaign, declaring that the resistance of China to the legitimate demands of Japan is prompted by German diplomatists. Yuan Shi Kai, it feels confident, is in all but name the ally of Emperor William. But all Tokyo dailies seem agreed that the Japanese government will pursue a firm course with the dictator in Peking.

Japanese and Chinese Ideas of German Diplomacy.

in a mood of impotence, confiding to some of his diplomatic advisers that without European or American support he was helpless. These reports are circulated in the Berlin Kreuz-Zeitung upon the basis of letters from the well-informed in Peking. One Japanese divi

WELL, You SEE IT'S THIS WAY

THE JAPANESE ANSWER

-Bowers in Newark Evening Star

the position of Premier Okuma, confronted by an alliance of the army and the navy clans, is, thinks the Paris Gaulois, more difficult than ever. The Jingoes are certain that Germany will revenge herself after the war by absorbing some of China. A coalition of Japan, France, Russia and Great Britain to forestall the vengeance Germany is sure to seek after the war is urged in the Revue Diplomatique by Doctor Ariga, the authority on international law, and for a time adviser to the Peking government. "It is especially important that Japan further such a plan, since Germany is certain to attempt inroads upon China, demanding territory in return for that taken by Japan, on the ground that Japan's success was made possible by the indifference of the Peking government." This authority does not think Japan and Great Britain alone could face the peril adequately. Chinese statesmen are less under the spell of the might of Germany, according to the Paris Débats, but they have been fed with "mendacities" by the agents of Berlin and have a very erroneous notion of the destinies of the conflict raging in Europe. It impresses them to learn that Germany holds Belgium and so much of France, besides having reduced Turkey to the position. of her vassal. They are affected likewise by a dread of Japan, growing more keen as the crisis develops.

How Yuan Shi Kai Contemplates the European War.

EFFORTS to analyze what is supposed to be going

on in the mind of Yuan Shi Kai, as he notes the progress of events in Europe, find space from time to time in the organs of the allies. The dictator is somewhat aghast, as is intimated in the Paris Figaro, the London News and the Novoye Vremya of Petro

grad, at the notion of a submerged Germany. Peking diplomacy, as the Paris paper reminds us, has always been based upon the simple idea of playing one European power against another. German ambitions were a convenient make-weight to Yuan Shi Kai against the pressure of the entente powers and especially against France and Russia. Japan was hated and dreaded always; but the activities of German diplomatists neutralized the effects of the Anglo-Japanese alliance. Yuan Shi Kai would be greatly disconcerted were imperial Pan-Germanism to be crushed, leaving China alone in a world dominated by the entente powers. He would give a good deal to learn just how the situation in Europe will resolve itself, and, for the moment, is a pliable instrument in German hands. He is even said to be winking at the activities of agents from Berlin who subsidize an anti-Japanese vernacular press.

Resolving China into Her Constituent Elements.

GERMAN policy in China from the outbreak of the

war, as analyzed in the allied press, has consisted in an emphasis of every local tendency toward separation. More than once the well-informed correspondents of such dailies as the Paris Temps and the London Post have dwelt upon the independence of the provincial authorities in the face of the administrative measures of Peking. Exactly how far the authority of Peking extends over the provincial governments is a moot point even in normal times. Just now, stimulated by the diplomacy of Berlin, there may be said to flourish about as many governments in China as the Kaiser can instigate. While Tokyo, London and Paris exert pressure in Peking, Berlin is bringing it to bear in the provinces. Treaties of which nobody ever heard before come to light at crucial moments. The only available troops happen to have been trained mainly under German auspices, for Yuan Shi Kai always preferred the militarism of Berlin to that of Paris or Petrograd. The promising officers in the dictator's army were educated by the Germans. Nor do those democratic ideals for which the allies profess to be fighting commend themselves to one who has risen to power after the fashion of Yuan Shi Kai. It has become necessary, as even the London Times, so friendly to Japan, agrees,. to deal with this situation very astutely and without playing into the hands of German diplomacy. This course does not, however, suit the Japanese at all. The efforts of the British foreign office to keep Japan within certain limits, in deference to Chinese susceptibilities, has provoked inflammatory remarks in the Osaka Mainichi and other important papers. In the end, Japan will not be restrained, her dread of German influence in China having become the supreme consideration.

AL

Suggestions of More Publicity on the Subject of China. LL the secrecy with reference to China and Japan maintained hitherto by both official Washington and official London lends itself admirably to German purposes, notes the Manchester Guardian, and even the organs of vested interests in the British capital deplore occasionally the reticence of Sir Edward Grey when questioned lately on the subject in the Commons. "The silence of the foreign office may shroud a very grave danger," says the London Economist, for instance. "Japan can not afford either the cost or the discredit

of creating by military aggression fresh chaos in China.” Allowance, however, must be made for the fact, says London Truth, that at Peking as at Washington "German agents and German money are working to make trouble for Great Britain" and that "the ambitions of Japan are a useful ingredient for admixture in both. these cauldrons of intrigue." Nevertheless:

"Without laboring details, we may say that Japan claims an absolute veto over all railway and commercial concessions, a preponderating voice in the provision of war material, the management of police, and the kind of surveillance over the Chinese Government that is exercized over Egypt by Great Britain. It is not denied that considerable bodies of troops have been shipped to China, whose bayonets must, as it were, dot the i's and cross the t's of any representations that have been made. . . .

"Let us suppose that the Japanese demands are conceded, and that practically the whole development of China is referred to Japanese capital. Clearly Japan cannot herself raise that capital. She will have to seek it in New York, London, or Paris, if, that is, her diplomatic success is to be anything more than a dead letter. In no such money market would there be any eagerness to finance the present program.

"Japan has during the last dozen years displayed such sound judgment that we may trust her once more to take a large view of the situation. She is firmly entrenched in Korea, and will, as a matter of course, play a great and, one hopes, a useful part in the history of the East. But she will bite off more than she can chew if she attempts to convert China into her vassal. Japan may be the most brilliant, but China is the most solid race in the East, and she will tolerate tutelage only as long as it suits her mind so to do."

THE

combined in an exhibition the total value of which is estimated at three hundred and fifty million dollars, designed to set forth the achievements of science, industry and art in the creation of the very things the war is destroying. Each event is in its way an unexampled exhibition of war. One is a war between different races of mankind. The other is a war waged by the whole human race for the subjugation of the forces of nature. In one case, all the reserves of science and invention are brought into play for the destruction of human life, its comforts and necessities, its works of art, its temples of worship. In the other case, all these reserves are marshaled to enhance human life, augment its comforts, nourish its sense of beauty, and increase its consciousness of human brotherhood. Did the world ever show a more massive and monumental contrast than this-the greatest war of history on one side, on the other the greatest exhibition ever seen of the triumphs of peace and international intercourse? It is a good thing that that mythical visitor from Mars still remains mythical. If he were to look upon our planet

Editor of CURRENT OPINION:

Why should Americans see the San Francisco Exposition?

Because they have a sense of beauty that will be gratified by the architecture, statuary, gardening and color scheme of the Exposition.

Because they will become acquainted with the western half of the United States, its parks, mountains, glaciers, cities, people and the Pacific Ocean.

Because they will never have an opportunity to see a more beautiful exposition or a better opportunity to see an exhibition of man's most recent achievements in science, industry and art.

Because all Americans will be made more proud by seeing a city prosperous, cheerful and beautiful that eight years ago was ruined.

FRANKLIN K. LANE.

Influence of the War on the Exposition.

IT IS a mistake, according to Seth Low, to think that the war has deprived the Exposition of its international character. More nations are represented as exhibitors than at any previous world's fair. Not one has withdrawn because of the war. Nor does the war seem likely now to defeat the success of the fair in the matter of attendance. In the first five weeks of the World's Exposition held in Chicago, the attendance. was 1,825,000. It took five weeks and one day for the St. Louis Exposition to pass the two-million mark. But that mark was reached and passed by the present Exposition on the thirtieth day after opening, breaking all records. If this same average is maintained for the ten months during which the Exposition is to last, the aggregate attendance will be well over twenty millions. That for the St. Louis Exposition was nineteen millions. Already, as noted by the Washington Post, travel overland as well as by the Panama Canal to California is assuming huge proportions, and the automobile companies report that, in spite of the war in Europe, the sale of motor cars here is larger than ever before, and that tourist travel in this country, presumably to California, will be of enormous volume. It is a matter of regret that the Lincoln Highway could not have been completed by the time the Exposition was opened. But even in its incomplete condition, the number of cars that will pass over that route during the summer is estimated all the way from 10,000 to 25,000. Says the Boston Transcript, speaking of the Exposition: "Perhaps, had the great conflict which is now devastating Europe been foreseen when the campaign for this work began, it never would have been undertaken. Perhaps there are those sharing the responsibility for its success. or failure who now wish that it had not been. But we believe the early apprehensions caused by the war were not well founded. Without doubt this is going to be a California year.'