MILITARY ASPECT OF THE EUROPEAN WAR fore a year is out the lack of certain essentials in the destruction of mankind will bring them up against a stone wall, in which there is no exit except by the acknowledgment of their defeat." Modification of the German Press Attitude. OPTIMISM is no longer the note of the German press in commenting upon the vicissitudes of the campaign and upon the prospect for the immediate future. "We will admit," says the Berlin Morgenpost, for example, "that we had in many respects imagined that victory over our opponents would be easier than it appears after the first triumphs to be." Socialist dailies have in some instances been disciplined for a tone of pessimism, while even the organ of the solidly established industrial interests, the Rheinisch-Westfälische Zeitung, makes these remarks: 161 "We must certainly realize that the war has not yet reached its supreme point. In the west we have for months been fastened to the same spot, facing the superior forces of the foe. ... "Neither has a decisive victory yet been reached in the east. The Austrians have not been able to continue their attack in Galicia, according to the plan of campaign. Rather, the Russians have gained ground there. We should regard it as a misdeed against our people if we were to gloss over this naked truth. We are of the opinion that it is far more patriotic to look the danger squarely in the face and to cherish no illusions regarding the present position. "We do not know whether the war will end in the present year. On the other hand, it is a fact that in the spring the struggle must be carried on with fresh forces, seeing that the English army, which in truth does not exist on paper only, but is a reality, will then appear in the French theater of war. That is the situation." STRATEGICAL POSITION OF THE BELLIGERENTS ON THE EVE OF THE SPRING CAMPAIGN GERMANY has lost the initiative. Great Britain holds the seas. France is ready to hurl her reserves of a million men in conjunction with Kitchener's army upon the northern line. Italy is going into the Austria is no longer to be taken seriously. The Turkish stroke has failed. Russia, even if Warsaw should fall, will press Germany hard in the eastern theater, thus weakening the Kaiser's resistance in the west. Such is the situation in outline on the eve of the eighth month of the European war, as we have it from the press of the allies. The military experts of the London Times, the Paris Figaro and the Petrograd Novoye Vremya are in substantial agreement on these points, except that the Russian daily is rather more disposed to see victories for the Grand Duke's strategy than are his western contemporaries. These experts point out, moreover, that while the tactics of the warthe operations upon the field of actual battle-remain involved in some obscurity, the strategy of the campaigns is published far and wide. There is no concealment of the grand plan upon which each belligerent is proceeding. This renders comment upon the outlook for the immediate future more intelligent, altho it does not remove the difficulty of estimating the results so far achieved. Confidence of German Military Experts. FOOD, COOD, or rather the want of it, inspires some dismay in the civil population of Germany; but the spirit of her military experts was never so hopeful. In the Vossische Zeitung, the Kreuz-Zeitung, and the Kölnische Zeitung we find serene confidence in the capacity of the Kaiser's commanders to retain all that has been won. They tell us that Paris ceased to be the objective of the western forces when Great Britain was realized as the "essential enemy." The task before the general staff is the reduction of the island foe. In the east the aim is to defeat one after another the Russian armies coming to the frontier, and this has been done. From the standpoint of German strategy to-day, moreover, the problem of the war is England. Berlin dailies at last agree that the issue of the struggle is to be decided at sea because Germany has already won on land. Re ports of dissensions between German commanders and those of Austria-Hungary are wild inventions, according to the expert of the Kreuz-Zeitung, who notes, too, the misapprehension in western Europe regarding the might of Russia in the field: "The fantastically overrated treasure and troops of Russia, about which so much is said now in the newspapers of our enemies, do not daunt us in the least. To be sure, since the year 1907 much has been done to strengthen the Russian army and navy. Yet, with all the patriotism in the world, it is impossible in seven years to bring about in a military force the promptness, the initiative and the efficiency which are so essential in the command of a campaign. These are the qualities in which Russia found herself lacking deplorably in the struggle with Japan. These qualities are not improvized on a sudden and least of all in a land like Russia. That is why the very numbers at the disposal of the Russian general staff are a source of embarrassment when it comes to providing them with ammunition, with weapons and with food and uniforms." Expectation of Germany's coming Effort in the West. BEFORE many weeks, in the opinion of the French experts, the German armies will undertake a supreme effort in the west. There is a suspicion in Paris, according to the Figaro, that Emperor William initiates a drive in the direction of Poland in order to throw General Joffre off his guard. What the allies have to expect, at any rate, opines the expert of the London Times, is that Germany, "in view of the general situation, which is only superficially advantageous to her," may make a last violent effort in the west before the allied armies are all assembled and before the seasons in the east, and the completed preparations of states which contemplate the abandonment of their neutrality, place Emperor William's forces at a manifest disad vantage: "What we must be prepared to meet is the replacement of first line German troops in the trenches by half-baked levies, and the assembly at one or more points of a great mass of active army corps for a last and decisive attempt to break through. Between Arras and the Oise is not an unlikely front for such an operation. . . . "If we regard the general situation we shall not be so foolish as to wish to goad this commander or that into a premature offensive. We can bide our hour in the knowl edge that the commanders of the Allies in the west fully realize what Germany may be about and are quite prepared for her. It is not likely, do what Germany may, that she will ever again advance in Flanders under such favorable conditions as those which she enjoyed in October and November last, while on the rest of the allied front the French keep guard, and we shall all welcome a German advance. If no such advance takes place then we shall act at our own time—all the Allies and all together—so that whether we have already and finally broken the German offensive, or whether one more convulsive effort on Germany's part is still to be expected, we can make our minds easy concerning the result." Has Germany's Strategy SUCCESS for Germany depends entirely upon her capacity to retain what she has won in the land campaign. This seems to be the one point upon which a German expert and a British or French expert can agree. But whereas the Kölnische Zeitung and its contemporaries in the fatherland insist that the troops of the Kaiser will not recede, but advance, if anything, the London Post and the Paris Temps tell us that a German retreat is to be the next development. It may not be witnessed this spring, altho on that detail optimism prevails in the camps of the allies. Thus, one of the great living authorities upon war in its scientific aspect, Lord Sydenham, better known to many as Sir George Sydenham Clarke, says in the Manchester Guardian that on both fronts the Germans appear to be held fast, even if we assume that they will penetrate to Warsaw. "Their offensive plan of campaign must be regarded as having definitely failed, altho the German. people as a whole are probably quite unaware of the real military situation." In France, Joffre wisely avoids a general attack upon strongly entrenched positions, which could only succeed at a heavy cost of life. He waits until, with the large forces now in preparation in Japan, it is said, would not take the Philippines as a gift. But that's not what we're afraid of.-Baltimore American. EFFORTS both his own country and England, he will be able to deal a powerful blow at some strategic point. This is to be the outstanding feature of the spring campaign just ahead. TER Strategy of a Railway War in Europe. ERRITORIAL details conflict hopelessly in official reports of the ground held by Germans and allies, yet, according to the careful expert of the London Truth, if we compare the existing situation in the east. with that in the west, we see that far from being unfavorable to the Russians, the balance is the other way. In the west, he says, all the enemy's territories which the allies have so far occupied is a small slice of Alsace. In the east the Russians have conquered three-quarters of Galicia.(the Kreuz-Zeitung admits no such thing) and the whole of the Bukovina (a mendacity, comments the Kölnische) amounting to twice the territory which the Germans occupy in France, besides a strip of East. Prussia which very nearly corresponds in size to that part of Belgian territory which is now in the enemy's possession. (Von Hindenburg has driven the Russians out, notes the Vossische.) It is indeed conceded by the expert of London Truth that the Germans are in occupation of a great part of Russian Poland, but they have paid dearly for it in lives: "This is a railway war, and if only the Grand Duke had half the numbers of railways in Poland that the Germans have in the provinces of Silesia and Posen, von Hindenburg's successive attacks would have been checked by superior force before there had been time for them to materialize. That the Grand Duke should have done as much as he has is a testimony to the strategical skill which he has displayed in parrying the attacks made on his position by his redoubtable antagonist. On no single occasion has he allowed his hands to be forced, nor has he ever feared to withdraw from an untenable position, even when by so doing, as in the case of the retirement in the first week of December to the line of the Bzura and Pilitza rivers, his action had the appearance of defeat." Just at present even the young wife's bread shows a tendency to rise. Chicago Herald. CONDITIONS OF JAPAN'S APPEARANCE AS A FFORTS to obtain from Count Okuma a definite statement on the subject of Japan's possible appearance as a belligerent in the European theater of the war have not yet been successful. Not only is the Not only is the usually communicative statesman evasive to the newspaper correspondents, according to the Vossische Zeitung (Berlin), but his absorption in the political campaign renders access to him difficult. The election takes place at the end of the present month. Its leading issue, in the light of the comment in vernacular Japanese pean theater of the war if a German triumph should Japanese Objection to Japanese dailies, seems to concern itself solely with an extension CLAN leaders in Tokyo are debating now the policy of popular rights. That cause finds its ablest champion in Mr. Yukio Ozaki. Should the Seiyu-kai or constitutional party retain its ascendancy in the house, suspects our German contemporary, Japan will not soon appear as a belligerent in Europe. Indeed, the Hochi Shimbun, a Tokyo paper in touch with official opinion, has outlined the possibilities definitely. Japan, it says, will intervene energetically and without delay in the Euro of participation in the battles on European soil. France is rumored to have extended an invitation. Japanese officers are said to be actually commanding the Russian artillery in Poland. Other accounts represent these soldiers as merely "observers." Japan, dreading events in China, will remain in Asia. Thus the Hochi returning to the subject and thus, too, the Kokumin, which says Japan is not India but an independent na ATTITUDE OF JAPAN IN WORLD POLITICS tion with her own interests to defend. The Nichi Nichi can not see how a force really worth while could be sent from Japan to Europe. The financial considerations involved alone make the suggestion impracticable, says The Japan Weekly Chronicle, issued in English in Tokyo. These and other Japanese impressions, including that of a high official quoted in the Paris Temps, do not alter the belief in certain influential European military circles that Japan at the right time will be a participant in the European field. The Paris Homme enchaîné, inspired by Clemenceau, says the project has not fallen through by any means. It is all a matter of terms. Japanese Press on the War Situation in Europe. JUDGING from the vernacular press, as the London Post remarks, the average Japanese journalist is almost wholly ignorant of conditions in the United States and England. "If the editors are in this condition, the people must be even more grossly ignorant of western life." The remark has special reference to the two thousand or more newspapers published all over Japan in the native tongue. Less than half of the twoscore vernacular organs issued in Tokyo are taken seriously in Europe, a fact which must be borne in mind in connection with recent anti-American outbursts in popular prints. The influential Kokumin Shimbun (Tokyo), solidly respectable and widely circulated, insists that Japanese relations with the United States are friendly. It sees a grave peril to the future of mankind in German occupation of Belgium. That event is certain to inflame the Jingoes in Berlin, it opines, who will strive for naval expansion. Germany's object is to increase her coast line in Europe, the Tokyo daily argues. Belgium affords an opportunity. It will be held by the Germans to the last moment, even at the risk of compromising the safety of East Prussia. The Jiji Shimpo, 163 widely read by the commercial classes and the exalted bureaucrats, urges the English to expel the Germans. from Belgium without delay for the sake of the moral effect. Notwithstanding Japanese faith in the supremacy of the British fleet, it adds, this German occupation of Belgium remains a serious menace to the future of the allies in the war. Their business is to bend every energy to free Belgium from the invader. The Nichi Nichi is far from convinced that the progress of the war hitherto is favorable to British arms, and even the Asahi (Osaka), altho professing confidence in the might of the British fleet, thinks the Japanese ought to prepare themselves to hear the worst respecting the fortunes of their ally at sea. Count Okuma Elucidates the Japanese Point of View. EUROPE should pay no attention to hints that Japan will take advantage of the crisis to create a new yellow peril or to revive an old one, says Premier Okuma, who has been stirred by German newspaper allegations to that effect. It will be Japan's one ambition at this time, he declares over his own signature in The Japan Magazine (Tokyo), to prove that she can work harmoniously with great western powers for the support and protection of the highest ideals of civilization, "even to the extent of dying for them." Not only in the far East, "but anywhere else that may be necessary," Japan is ready to lay down her life for the principles that the foremost nations will die for. "She cntered the alliance with Great Britain to stand for and die for what Anglo-Saxons are everywhere ready to defend even unto death." Japan's relation to the present conflict is as a defender of the things that make for civilization and a In more permanent peace. writing thus, Count Okuma echoes the sentiments of the leading Japanese dailies, those which are quoted as having authority in Europe. Unfortunately, as the London Post laments, a prodigious amount of misinformation on the subject of England and the United States is circulated in the less responsible vernacular press, a circumstance which may have its effect upon the result of the election now only a few weeks off. French Agitation Over Japan as a Belligerent. FRENCH opinion has for some weeks past been agi tated by reports that Japan is to receive territorial concessions in Indo-China as a reward for the help expected of her in Europe. There have been no negotiations on any such basis between Tokyo and Paris, according to the well-informed Temps. Japan's assistance is highly desirable, none the less, affirms the Petit Journal (Paris), inspired by former foreign minister Pichon. Emperor Yoshihito, it believes, has given a direct intimation that he favors the despatch of a large force to the western theater of the war without delay. Twelve army corps can be transported with comparatively little trouble from Japan to Europe, and the sooner they come the better, thinks this daily. Numerous French newspapers hint that the arrival in Europe of some half million Japanese troops would facilitate the final extinction of German militarism. Without such aid the cause of the allies may languish. Such utterances are deprecated by the influential Paris Débats. It confesses its wish for Japanese cooperation in Europe, but it urges these considerations: "To begin with, from a military standpoint, nothing justifies the inference that Japanese aid would produce, in a relatively short time, the result desired. Other aid may be afforded sooner without sacrifices on our part. It can even be affirmed that such aid will be given, not because we will have succeeded in securing it, but because, apart from any consideration of sympathy or diplomacy, there are in Europe two nations who will be compelled by regard for their own interests to come into line against Austria-Hungary. Whether the present governments like it or not, they will be forced to come in. Their intervention will precipitate almost at once the crash of the Austro-Hungarian military machine. "Now, for various reasons, this intervention will not be delayed beyond a date at which it would be possible for the first Japanese army corps to be landed on our continent." Tokyo and London in Negotiation for Japanese Aid. NEGOTIATIONS between the foreign offices in London and Tokyo have for the past six weeks had in view the defense of Egypt by a Japanese force, or so the Berlin dailies tell us. Japan longs to enter the field against Turkey, thinks the Vossische Zeitung. The British troops in Egypt would make way for an army. now in Korea. Constantinople has just experienced a Japanese scare, arrests of alleged Chinamen as spies from Tokyo taking place by wholesale. Japan contemplates the protection of the Suez Canal by a force of at least two hundred thousand men. The English could then concentrate their energies in Flanders. Japan would collect an indemnity from Germany. These details have inspired much comment in Russian newspapers, which make much of American objection to any such procedure. The Washington government, thinks a writer in the Novoye Vremya, might not like the emergence of Japan in the capacity of savior of the white man from his own brother. The Russkoye Slovo admits the importance of the military effect if Japan came to fight in Europe. The Germans would be in a panic, it opines: "One can not help agreeing with those influential French publicists who tell us that Japanese intervention in the European war would render a great service to the cause of peace and civilization. To be sure, the Franco-Anglo-Belgian army can without aid prevail over the presumptuous foe. But the most humane war is that which is over the soonest. From this standpoint, there should be no false pride and no consideration of purely chimerical yellow perils. "Nevertheless, the despatch of Japanese troops to Europe is not a matter calling for discussion at this time. The sending of such troops over the immense distance involved would present great technical difficulties. Altho the Indian, Canadian and Australian troops have been brought across the ocean, it must not be forgotten that they belong in a special sense to the military organization of Great Britain and that their real headquarters would be in London. The Japanese army, on the other hand, would have to depend upon Tokyo for supplies and arms, for its ammunition and artillery are of special home design. These technical problems could, indeed, be solved through efficiency. "More serious would be the political problem involved in Japanese intervention. The extension of the world obligations and responsibilities of Japan must entail certain conditions, for no great nation will consent to shed the blood of its children solely to vindicate the principles of international justice. Japan can get no compensation at German expense, for the African colonies of Germany are too far away and her Pacific islands are too insignificant, to say nothing of the suspicions that would arise in the American mind." If San Francisco is wise she will make the Pacific coast eliminate all anti-Japanese agitation until after Congress has paid the bills for the customary exposition deficit.-Boston Transcript. There shouldn't be any trouble establishing a popular government in Mexico, considering the sort of government that seems to be most popular in that country.-Chicago Herald. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF THE POPE AS A FACTOR IN THE EUROPEAN CRISIS WITH the approach of the day upon which Italy bassadors. With some of these powers Italy may be must decide whether to remain a neutral or to at war to-morrow. Their representatives at the Vatican are inviolable. They can correspond with their governments secretly. They enjoy the immuntiy of accredited diplomatists. become a belligerent, Rome is occupied more and more with rumors concerning alleged negotiations between the Quirinal and the Vatican. One or two conversations or alleged conversations between the pontifical secretary of state, Cardinal Gasparri, and an exalted Italian official, form the subject of editorial conjecture. in Italian dailies so important as the Stampa, the Per- BENEDICT XV. has been invited to dismiss the en severanza and the Corriere della Sera, which agree that Italy's appearance as a belligerent must place the Vatican in a very extraordinary position. The ministerial Tribuna confirms these rumors after a fashion. High Italian officials and exalted Vatican ecclesiastics, it says, study with anxiety the grave problem sure to confront both the civil power and the church should the Quirinal declare war. The famous "law of guarantees" whereby Italy assures territorial sovereignty to the Vatican precincts, besides recognizing the Pope's right to govern the church with independence, raises delicate questions relative to a state of war. There are at the Holy See envoys from powers to whom the Pope sends his am Benedict XV. as a Sovereign in Rome. voys at his court from the powers with which Italy may find herself at war before long. In their place he would be permitted to receive ecclesiastics from the countries involved, provided those ecclesiastics were already Vatican functionaries. What the Pope thinks of the suggestion is not known, but the Tribuna hints that were his Holiness conciliatory in his attitude. the Vatican would be allowed to send a representative to the peace conference, whenever it assembles. Italy, that is to say, would not object. France, it is assumed, would not object either. The Viviani ministry, indeed, offered no objection whatever to the reception by the Sultan in Constantinople of the envoy from the Pope. THE PRISONER OF THE VATICAN IN WAR TIME Mahmoud V. received the representative of Benedict XV. with every assurance of his desire to protect Roman Catholics within his dominions. The diplomatic corps accredited to the Vatican has, since the arrival of the Servian and British representatives, become a highly important feature of the international situation. Cardinal Gasparri has a delicate task, notes the Paris Figaro, between the envoy from Prussia and the envoy from Belgium, who fill his ears with their complaints. 165 Delicacy of the Position IN VIEW of the events of the past month, the embarrassments of the Vatican seem to the Paris Temps well calculated to tax the capacity of Benedict XV. and his advisers. The church is an international institution, we are reminded by the organ of the French foreign office, and the Pope must strive to adjust the balance between his warring children very nicely indeed. His efforts to maintain a strict neutrality involve him now with the Belgians and again with the Germans. Moreover the Austrians regard or profess to regard with stupefaction the relations between Servia and the Vatican. The cry in Vienna is that the Vatican is going over to the Slavs. It seems to the Temps that Austria-Hungary and Germany enjoy on the whole a preponderating influence at the Vatican. This is the result of Emperor William's assiduous cultivation of the papal power. Naturally, this state of affairs is not pleasing to Roman Catholics in Belgium and in France, who are continually urging the pontifical secretary of state to open the eyes of the Holy Father to the true character of Emperor William. The faithful in Latin countries are scandalized because the Pope, in a letter to the German sovereign, used the phrase: "placing my reliance upon your sentiments of Christian charity," and so forth. This was a mere matter of style, explains the Paris Figaro, for his Holiness has long made up his mind, it ventures to think, regarding the true character of the "imperial bandit." THE CARDINAL WHO DIRECTS THE NEW VATICAN Monsignor Gasparri, pontifical secretary of state, is said to be negotiating with the Italian government for at least a qualified recognition by Pope and King of one another officially as sovereigns. thing would create a profound sensation. To-day the episode is lost in the general European uproar but it reminds Europe of the fact that Benedict XV. is a great diplomatist of the school of Rampolla and Leo XIII. and that he was made Pope for this very reason. How the Pope Would Rule if Italy Went to War. greatest of all. Anticlerical organs and Socialist dailies ONCE Italy had severed diplomatic relations with have been accusing the Roman Catholic faithful in Italy of deserting the cause of their own country in favor of the international policy of the Vatican. One of the accredited leaders of the Roman Catholic party in Italy, the Count della Torre, gave the lie recently to these charges. The Catholics, he said, are for neutrality, but not for absolute neutrality. The Catholics, he said, are true to the highest interests of their country. Neutrality for Italy is desirable only as the highest interests of Italy do not appear to be menaced by the situation as it exists. This assertion was authorized by the Vatican, says the well-informed Temps. Clerical organs in Italy highly approve of it. They They agree with the Count della Torre that when Italy declares war, the faithful in Italy must accept the verdict loyally. In ordinary times, notes our French contemporary, a Vatican declaration that the Catholic party in Italy would yield obedience to the King in any Germany, Austria and the powers ranged with Emperor William, a peril would confront the Roman government in the shape of the Pope's diplomatic corps. Envoys to the Pope would be corresponding with their respective chancelleries, says the Temps. They must be granted immunity from search and seizure. These privileges do not harm Italy when she is at peace. How admit, on the other hand, that in the very capital of the Italian nation, there shall be envoys from the lands with which its government is waging war? Italy could not permit the correspondence of these envoys to pass through her post uncensored, seeing that information of the greatest consequence to an enemy could thus be transmitted safely. There have been no official negotiations between the Vatican and the Quirinal on this subject for the reason that Italy will not openly acknowledge contemplation of the possibilty of war. When and if war comes, however, a new code for the |