therefore, by our increased sales in neutral countries. But this offsetting will hardly be sufficient to enable the industries just mentioned to pass through the crisis without feeling some depression. Another large class of losers consists of those whose income is derived from the importation of products from Europe, to be consumed ultimately in this country. European importations were almost at once brought to a standstill and orders for delivery in the near future cancelled. At the same time that some industries reap certain loss, it is equally sure that other industries will reap certain gain. This gain will be in direct proportion to our ability to provide shipping facilities. Our manufacturers who are in a position to supply the needs of the European armies, such as our makers of shoes, blankets, and other naval and military supplies, should profit materially. Again, the foreign demand for agricultural products of all sorts, excepting cotton, has materially increased. "Armies and navies," said Napoleon, "fight on their stomachs." The proper care of the stomachs of the belligerents will be left largely in the hands of American and South American farmers.

T

Expense of the War to American Consumers. HERE seems to be no doubt in

the minds of the leading authorities who have analyzed the situation that there will be a rapid rise in the cost of living in this country as well as abroad. It will not be possible to maintain one price for the domestic market and a higher price for the foreign. We shall be obliged to pay more for our foodstuffs and for much of our wearing apparel. With the European cotton and woolen mills closed, the New England and southern manufacturers of cloth should reap a harvest for which the American consumer must pay in part. Wholesale food prices are already climbing. Many produce men predict that they will reach sensational heights if the European war continues more than a few weeks. Supply-houses were refusing early last month to sell to hotels more than the usual orders. Many hotels have endeavored to lay in a stock of non-perishable food sufficient to last six months. Large stocks of commodities on hand prevented any immediate reflection of the jump in retail prices; but before many days the price to the consumer will change. Enormous increases were soon reported in perishable imported articles. Champagne and other imported wines will be among the first things in which a scarcity is noticed, and it is predicted by importers that prices will go up within a few weeks. European production has been cut off and the vineyards

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may be destroyed. The workmen have some hope of offsetting this increase in the cost of living through the shrinkage of our labor supply due to the calling in of reservists by the belligerent governments. Even tho this movement does take place on a large scale, it will be in turn offset by the reduction of the forces in those industries which are largely dependent upon Europe for a market. The salaried man will be obliged to pay more for what he gets and his salary is not likely to increase as rapidly as his expenses for necessary commodities. A wave of industrial improvement may in the long run result, however, through taking over the industries of Europe, which will again place the salaried man at an advantage.

W

Panama-The Silver Lining in the Clouds of War.

HILE the great celebration at the opening of the Panama Canal must be indefinitely postponed, the canal itself may receive a strong impetus through the conflict of nations. It is more than likely that much of the commerce that formerly passed through the Suez Canal will be diverted to the Panama route. Our South American trade by way of the Panama Canal is also likely to receive a powerful impetus. This is the one silver lining in the war-clouds for us. The United States, as the Philadelphia Public Ledger points out, might easily acquire commercial dominance in South America if England and Germany continue to fly at each other's throats:

"The United States is about to begin an aggressive campaign for the trade of the west coast of South America, which England and Germany have heretofore practically dominated, and by transshipments at Valparaiso our merchants will be able also to reach with better advantage into the Argentine market. The dominance which the United States might readily acquire while the energies of her two principal competitors were being exhausted in strife might easily become overwhelming.

"To Argentine alone Germany and the United Kingdom now export about $175,000,000 in merchandise annually; to Chili, about $70,000,000; to Peru, about $11,000,000; to Ecuador, about $4,000,000; to Bolivia, about $9,000,000. British exports to Bolivia were double in 1910 what they were in 1909, which gives some idea of how the South American trade has been increasing under the stimulus of the approaching completion of the canal.

"Germany's total exports of merchandise in 1911 amounted to $1,827,895,833, and the United Kingdom's to $2,784,392,160. The exports of the United States the same year were $2,204,322,409. The British Navy might keep open the Empire's arteries of commerce, but the handicap of war would quickly advance the United States to first place in the world's trade."

E

FFICIENCY is not a thing; it is a way. It has neither size nor shape. It is a. principle. It applies equally to the accomplishment of the infinitely great and the infinitely little. Its most powerful meaning is finality. Its application in its fullest. sense is both prospective and retrospective.

It is not a miracle-worker, as so many suppose and hope; it is only the application of higher scientific law to commonplace affairs. It is the rudder to the ship, the steering-wheel to the machine, the telescope to the immense, the = microscope to the small.

The dreamer hopes to find in the I study of efficiency some secret method of immediate transfiguration or transI migration. The employee reads articles on "efficiency" in the hope that he will discover a short road to the goal or an easier path.

The employer hopes that "efficiency". will relieve his organization from attention to detail, that "efficiency" will provide an automatic substitute for attention, vigilance and concentration. Not so.

The principle of "efficiency" being a way, and not a thing, it might be called the gospel of "the only way"-"the only way" being more work with less waste so as to build the capacity for bigger work with still less waste, so as to eventually reach the capacity for biggest work with practically no waste.

"Efficiency" is merely the best method of falling or leaping, diving or soaring, weeping or laughing, speaking or writing, beginning or finishing, going back or going forward, shoveling coal or cutting diamonds, wrapping a pound = of sugar or building a transcontinental railroad, bandaging a canary's broken leg or dynamiting a great river's icejam, seeking a position as an office-boy or promoting a million-dollar corpora

tion.

Big or little, selecting the best cause or achieving the best effect in the best way, resting or working, getting the best out of youth or out of age, no matter what or where or how, there is the way of "efficiency"-the best way-the only way.

This important point must be remembered in considering "efficiency": If it does not apply to each and all of the parts, it does not apply to the whole.

"Efficiency" not only does not do away with the necessity for attention to detail but it intensifies it. In fact,

the first principle of "efficiency" in practice is to break every thing into parts and consider each part separately.

TH

That is the principle of all scientific investigation-of all accurate knowledge.

THE ECONOMIC FOLLY OF GOING
TO WAR

HE war raging in Europe lends melancholy interest to the recent book by the author of "The Great Illusion," Mr. Norman Angell, on the economic folly of war. Statecraft, Mr. Angell maintains ("Arms and Industry"; Putnam's), has remained behind in the process of evolution. Existing political and economic literature still employs the terminology of international conditions which have in fact disappeared and the underlying ideas of such literature ignore characteristic

developments of our time. The axioms of the eighteenth century are the absurdities of to-day. Mr. Angell restates the theory of the relation of military power to social and economic advantage, as it is still accepted by the chancellories of Europe, as follows:

wealth of the conquering nation; that it "1. That conquered territory adds to the can be 'owned' in the way that a person or a corporation would own an estate;

"2. That military power is a means of imposing upon other countries economic

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conditions favorable to the nation exercizing it;

"3. That nations are economic units'competing business firms,' as one great military authority recently called them."

So long as Britons believe that their wealth and power can be lost and transferred to another nation as the result of a single naval defeat, so long as the Germans believe that they will be excluded from their fair share of the world's wealth unless they are able to back their claims by force, there will be competition for the possession of force: Britons will always reply to an increase in the German navy by a greater increase, and Germany will never be content that a rival nation shall have an overpowering preponderance of force throughout the world. In the absence of any necessary cause of discussion, Mr. Angell goes on to say, the armaments themselves become

one.

N

Fallacious Theories of Statecraft About War.

EEDLESS to say, Mr. Angell thinks that the assumption upon which nations make war and upon which, in the last analysis, the present war is being fought, are wrong economically as well as morally. For one thing, the wealth in conquered territory remains in the hands of the inhabitants. Special taxation or tribute is a Roman or feudal contrivance which is both difficult and unprofitable to apply in modern administrative methods. The intangibility of wealth, which mutual dependence of peoples, based upon that division of labor which disregards frontiers, has brought about is the basis of this modern development. In the second place, the writer goes on to say, economic conditions in lesser states, such as Sweden, Holland, Switzerland, are just as good as in the states exercizing great military power, such as Russia, Germany, Austria. The foreign trade of most great states is mainly with countries over which they exercize no political control. Great Britain does twice as much trade with foreign

enormous expansion of German trade in countries like Russia, the United States, South America, owes nothing to her military power. The great industrial nations, Mr. Angell continues, refuting the third point made by those who advocate war on economic grounds, are not units:

"International trade is not exchanged between corporations known as 'Britain,' 'Germany,' etc., but is a process of complex operations divided infinitely between individuals: a Birmingham ironmaster sells his engines to a Brazilian coffeeplanter, who is able to buy them because he sells his coffee to a merchant in Havre, who sells it to a Westphalian town manu

213

facturing rails for Siberia, which buys them because peasants are growing wheat as the result of the demand in Lancashire, which is manufacturing cotton for Indian coolies growing tea for sheep-farmers in Australia, who are able to buy it because they sell wool to a Bradford merchant, who manufactures it because he is able to sell cloth to a petroleum-refiner in Baku, who is able to buy good clothing because he is selling petrol to the users of automobiles in Paris. How can such an operation, which is typical of most international trade, be described as the competition of rival units-such as Great Britain, Germany, France, Brazil, or Russia?"

E

Mr. Angell's Four Sticklers for Warlike Economists. VEN those who believe that nations are necessarily rivals and that one country may gain what another loses in war must take cognizance of the points which Mr. Angell attempts to elucidate. He asks four questions of statesmen. The present war will answer most of these shortly:

"I. How far have modern wealth and trade become intangible as regards military conquest, owing to the development of credit, and the interdependence of economic centers which this involves?

"2. To what extent does the greater complexity of the modern industrial organism harass or paralyze the employment of existing military machinery (e. g., could States like Germany feed industrial populations for any considerable period after a general mobilization, the interruption of communications, and the disturbance of the credit system)?

"3. To what extent do these factors involve the futility of the employment of military force to commercial ends, and how does the prosperity of the lesser

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rival military units, the idea that the military defeat of Germany would im

Pl

the removal of her industrial competition, overlooks completely the fact that the hands and brains of sixty-five millions engaged in producing and manufacturing, in buying and selling, would exist after the destruction of the German fleet as before, and that no essential economic fact would be altered by Germany's military defeat. England, even after its incorporation in the German empire, would remain England. Canada or Australia, after a German conquest, if we could imagine such a thing possible, would necessarily remain very much the same Canada and Australia as before. The confiscation of private property by a conqueror on a large scale is impossible in our day.

"Since you cannot turn the business